Analysts expect global oil prices to rise to at least $91 per barrel by the end of this year if the United States decides to launch a military strike against Iran leading to a disruption of its oil exports.
A report published on Saturday stated that any disruption to Iran’s oil production or exports, whether due to military conflict or new trade restrictions, would raise crude prices in the markets. It said: “Despite the glut of crude supplies in oil markets, the complete absence of Iranian barrels could completely overturn demand and supply forecasts for 2026, even with the expected increase in OPEC+ production.”
Expected rise in crude prices
Analysts estimate that Brent crude could fall to $55 per barrel in 2026, as the current political unrest in Iran has not destabilized oil markets.
However, if the U.S. administration carries out its threats and proceeds with a military strike against Iran or imposes new trade restrictions affecting Tehran’s oil supplies, Brent prices could rise to $71 per barrel in the second quarter of the year.
If the disruption to Iranian oil exports continues or stops completely, analysts expect benchmark Brent prices to reach $91 per barrel by the fourth quarter of the year.
Iran holds particular importance in oil markets as the fifth-largest producer in OPEC+, pumping approximately 3.3 million barrels of crude per day. Brent prices in daily trading rose to $66 per barrel amid the popular protests that hit several Iranian cities last week.
Iran protests raise crude prices
Call option prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude also saw a sharp rise in early January, with Brent option prices increasing by about 19 points, while West Texas Intermediate option prices rose by more than 20 points from the beginning of 2026 until January 13.
Market volatility intensified after an announcement on January 12 imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Iran, effective immediately.
If tensions in Iran escalate due to U.S. military action or new trade restrictions, it would lead to oil supply disruptions, reminiscent of the premiums associated with the start of the war in Ukraine.
Following the start of the war in Ukraine, oil markets experienced what is known as a “war premium,” which was estimated at $31 per barrel for Brent crude in 2022, rising to $47 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022 alongside European sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Since then, the “war premium” has gradually declined as Russian oil found its way to buyers. By the end of 2025, there was no significant “war premium” left in prices.
United States
The United States is a federal republic founded in 1776 after declaring independence from Great Britain, establishing itself through a revolutionary war and the adoption of a constitution in 1787. It grew from thirteen original colonies to span the North American continent, becoming a global superpower shaped by waves of immigration, industrialization, and its democratic political system.
Iran
Iran, historically known as Persia, is home to one of the world’s oldest continuous civilizations, with a rich cultural history spanning thousands of years. It features numerous UNESCO World Heritage sites, including the ancient ruins of Persepolis, the magnificent architecture of Isfahan’s Naqsh-e Jahan Square, and the sophisticated engineering of its historic Persian gardens. The country’s culture is deeply influenced by its pre-Islamic Zoroastrian heritage and its pivotal role in the Islamic Golden Age.
Washington
Washington, D.C., is the capital city of the United States, founded in 1790 following the ratification of the U.S. Constitution. It was established as a federal district to serve as the seat of the national government, distinct from any state, and was named after the first U.S. president, George Washington. The city is home to iconic landmarks such as the White House, the U.S. Capitol, and the Washington Monument, which symbolize the nation’s history and democratic ideals.
Tehran
Tehran is the capital and largest city of Iran, officially becoming the capital in 1786 under the Qajar dynasty. It serves as the country’s political, economic, and cultural center, home to significant sites like the Golestan Palace, a former Qajar royal complex and a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
OPEC+
OPEC+ is an expanded alliance of oil-producing nations, originally formed in 2016, which builds upon the foundation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) established in 1960. It aims to coordinate and stabilize global oil markets through production quotas, with its membership including OPEC countries and other major producers like Russia.
Brent
Brent is a diverse borough in northwest London, historically known for its development around the Grand Union Canal and the arrival of the railway in the 19th century. It is home to the iconic Wembley Stadium, built on the site of the 1923 Empire Stadium, and contains the Neasden Temple, a major Hindu temple complex opened in 1995.
West Texas Intermediate
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a grade of crude oil used as a major global pricing benchmark, named for the region in the United States where it is primarily extracted. Its pricing history, particularly its historical premium over other benchmarks like Brent crude, is tied to U.S. policy and infrastructure, such as the long-standing ban on crude oil exports which was lifted in 2015.
Ukraine
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe with a long history of cultural and political development, having been a center of the medieval Kyivan Rus’ state before enduring periods of foreign rule. It gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and is known for its Orthodox Christian heritage, Cossack traditions, and rich agricultural lands.
Russia
Russia is the world’s largest country by area, spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Its history is marked by the rule of the Tsars, the rise and fall of the Soviet Union in the 20th century, and its establishment as the modern Russian Federation in 1991. It is renowned for its vast landscapes, rich literary and artistic traditions, and globally influential cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Europe
Europe is a continent with a deeply layered history, shaped by ancient civilizations like Greece and Rome, the transformative Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and the profound impacts of two World Wars. Culturally, it is renowned for its diverse artistic heritage, architectural landmarks, and as the birthplace of influential movements like the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution. Today, it is a major political and economic union, with the European Union fostering cooperation among many of its nations.
