The World Bank stated that the Libyan economy experienced a strong recovery during the first nine months of 2025, driven by a rebound and expansion in the oil sector. However, it emphasized that the sustainability of this performance remains dependent on continuing reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability and improving the quality of public services.
According to the latest edition of the Libya Economic Monitor, the World Bank projected real GDP growth of 13.3% in 2025, supported by a 17.4% increase in the oil sector, alongside non-oil GDP growth of 6.8%, underpinned by the resilience of both private and public consumption.
The report noted that average oil production rose to 1.3 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, amid improved security conditions, ongoing maintenance works, and increased investment, despite earlier disruptions linked to disputes over the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya.
It also pointed to a marked improvement in public finances, with the Government of National Unity posting a surplus equivalent to 3.6% of GDP during the first nine months of 2025, compared to 0.7% over the same period last year.
This occurred despite a decline in global oil prices, as hydrocarbon revenues increased by 33% due to higher production and the devaluation of the dinar in April 2024, which offset the drop in tax revenues.
It was noted that the rebound in oil production helped boost growth rates and improve the public finance position, stressing that maintaining this momentum requires addressing structural constraints and advancing reforms to strengthen transparency, accountability, and the efficiency of service delivery.
Despite a cautiously positive outlook for the remainder of 2025, the report warned that ongoing political divisions and institutional complexities pose a fundamental challenge to more disciplined and transparent management of public finances and the macroeconomy.
It concluded that the multiplicity of institutions, overlapping mandates, parallel budget structures, and heavy reliance on oil revenues have weakened fiscal discipline and made financial planning vulnerable to shocks.
The World Bank called for a package of reforms, including the establishment of a unified treasury account, strengthening cash management, and revising budget classification, emphasizing that international experience shows tangible results can be achieved even in fragile and conflict-affected settings such as Libya.
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution founded in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference to help rebuild nations after World War II. Its primary mission has since evolved to focus on providing loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of pursuing capital projects and reducing global poverty.
Libya
Libya is a North African country with a rich history rooted in ancient civilizations like the Phoenicians and Romans, followed by centuries of Arab and Ottoman influence. In the modern era, it was an Italian colony before gaining independence in 1951, later undergoing a long period of rule under Muammar Gaddafi from 1969 until the 2011 revolution. Its cultural sites include well-preserved Roman ruins, such as those at Leptis Magna, a UNESCO World Heritage site.
Central Bank of Libya
The Central Bank of Libya is the primary monetary authority of Libya, established in 1956 to issue currency and manage the country’s financial reserves. Its history has been deeply affected by political conflict, particularly since 2011, leading to a prolonged period where rival administrations in the east and west of the country have claimed control over the institution and Libya’s vital oil revenues.
Government of National Unity
The Government of National Unity (GNU) is a power-sharing coalition government, most notably formed in South Africa following the 1994 elections that ended apartheid. It was established under the leadership of Nelson Mandela to ensure a peaceful transition, incorporating the previously ruling National Party and other groups into a cabinet with the African National Congress.
African Development Bank
The African Development Bank is a multilateral financial institution founded in 1964 to promote sustainable economic development and social progress across its regional member countries. Headquartered in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, its history is rooted in fostering self-reliance and regional integration on the African continent.
IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international financial institution established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability. Its primary roles include providing policy advice, financial assistance to member countries facing balance of payments problems, and promoting international trade and sustainable economic growth.
Arab Monetary Fund
The Arab Monetary Fund is a regional financial institution established in 1976 by Arab League member states to promote economic integration and stability. Its primary functions include providing loans to address balance of payments deficits, offering policy advice, and working to foster Arab currency cooperation and financial market development.
