Oil prices fell during today’s trading, as fears of a potential military escalation with Iran receded, coinciding with growing investor risk aversion following moves and statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Greenland and his threat to impose tariffs on a number of European countries.
Brent crude fell below $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $59 per barrel, amid increasing pressure from expectations of rising supply in global markets.
This decline came after fears of direct U.S. military intervention in Iran subsided over the weekend, despite the Iranian Supreme Leader’s announcement of several thousand deaths in anti-government protests this month, which was not accompanied by any immediate military escalation.
Markets had previously been experiencing widespread anxiety over the potential disruption of Iranian oil supplies in the event of a military confrontation with the United States, given Iran’s status as a key member of the OPEC oil exporting organization.
Fox News network reported, citing military sources, that at least one U.S. aircraft carrier was moving towards the Middle East as of Friday, at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later this week, after earlier signals from him about postponing any potential strike against Iran.
In parallel, Trump’s recent statements regarding Greenland, including the threat of tariffs on a number of European countries, negatively impacted investor sentiment, which was reflected in a decline in global stock markets, while gold hit record levels as demand for safe havens increased.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that direct U.S. control over Greenland would enhance deterrence, in remarks that sparked widespread political and economic debate within the United States and abroad.
Oil prices have faced additional pressure for several quarters, due to fears of global supply outpacing demand, as the International Energy Agency expects a supply surplus of up to 3.8 million barrels per day this year, with continued production increases from the OPEC+ alliance and producers outside the alliance.
Nevertheless, some signs of tightness remain in the market, particularly with reduced supplies from Kazakhstan due to problems in the Black Sea, alongside widening Brent crude spot differentials.
The Head of Commodities and Carbon Research at Westpac Bank said the oil market is stuck in a complex equation combining rising geopolitical risks on one hand, and rising production and inventories on the other.
He added that any sharp deterioration of the situation inside Iran could push oil prices above $70 per barrel, but the market’s focus in the near term has shifted from the Iranian issue to the political and trade tensions associated with Greenland, which constitutes a downward pressure factor on prices.
The International Energy Agency is expected to release its first monthly oil market report for 2026 on Wednesday, amid widespread anticipation for its assessment of supply and demand balance, with expectations of lower trading volumes due to a U.S. public holiday.
Oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations in recent months, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty regarding the trajectory of global demand.
Iran plays a pivotal role in the global energy market, as one of the largest producers within OPEC, making any disruption to its exports a factor affecting market balance.
Conversely, production increases from the OPEC+ alliance and the United States have deepened fears of a supply surplus, while markets in times of political and trade tension tend to shift towards gold and safe havens, which typically pressures high-risk assets like oil.
Iran
Iran, historically known as Persia, is home to one of the world’s oldest continuous civilizations, with a rich cultural history spanning thousands of years. It is renowned for its significant contributions to art, science, and literature, as well as architectural marvels like the ancient ruins of Persepolis. The modern Islamic Republic was established in 1979 following a revolution that transformed the nation’s political system.
United States
The United States is a federal republic founded in 1776 after declaring independence from Great Britain, with its current government established by the U.S. Constitution in 1789. It grew from thirteen original colonies into a global superpower, shaped by westward expansion, industrialization, and waves of immigration. Its diverse culture is a product of its history as a nation of immigrants and its influential political and economic systems.
Greenland
Greenland is the world’s largest island, located between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, and is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. Its history is marked by successive Inuit cultures and Norse settlement, beginning with Erik the Red around 985 AD, before coming under Danish control in the 18th century.
Europe
Europe is a continent with a rich and complex history, shaped by ancient civilizations like Greece and Rome, the transformative periods of the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, and the profound impacts of two world wars. Culturally, it is renowned for its diverse artistic heritage, architectural landmarks, and as the origin of many influential philosophical and political movements. Today, it is largely united under the political and economic framework of the European Union.
Middle East
The Middle East is a transcontinental region centered on Western Asia and Egypt, historically home to some of the world’s earliest civilizations, including Mesopotamia and Ancient Egypt. It is the birthplace of major Abrahamic religions—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—and has been a central crossroads for trade, empire, and cultural exchange for millennia. In the modern era, the discovery of vast petroleum reserves in the 20th century significantly reshaped its geopolitical and economic importance.
World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental organization founded in 1971 by German economist Klaus Schwab. It is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, which brings together political, business, and cultural leaders to discuss global economic and social issues.
Davos
Davos is a Swiss Alpine town most famous for hosting the annual World Economic Forum, a major meeting of global political and business leaders. Historically, it began as a modest farming community before developing into a health resort in the 19th century due to its dry mountain climate. It later evolved into a prominent destination for winter sports and international conferences.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is a Central Asian nation with a rich nomadic heritage, historically shaped by its position along the Silk Road and its incorporation into the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union. It gained independence in 1991 and is known for its vast steppes, modern capital Nur-Sultan (Astana), and the Baikonur Cosmodrome, the world’s first and largest operational space launch facility.
Black Sea
The Black Sea is a large inland sea situated between Eastern Europe and Western Asia, historically known for its strategic importance in trade and conflict. It has been a crucial region for various civilizations, including the Greeks, Romans, and Ottomans, who established ports and colonies along its coasts.
OPEC
OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Its primary purpose is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries to secure fair and stable prices for oil producers.
OPEC+
OPEC+ is an expanded alliance of oil-producing nations, formed in 2016, which builds upon the original Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) founded in 1960. It aims to coordinate and stabilize global oil markets through production agreements, notably including key non-OPEC members like Russia. This group’s decisions on output levels directly influence worldwide oil prices and supply.
International Energy Agency
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1974 in response to the 1973 oil crisis, initially to coordinate measures for oil supply security. Today, it focuses on ensuring reliable, affordable, and clean energy for its member countries and beyond, serving as a key authority on global energy data and policy analysis.
Westpac Bank
Westpac Bank is an Australian financial institution founded in 1817 as the Bank of New South Wales, making it Australia’s first bank and oldest company. It was established to support the colony’s economic development and later adopted its current name in 1982 after merging with the Commercial Bank of Australia.
Fox News
Fox News is a major American cable and satellite television news channel founded in 1996 by media mogul Rupert Murdoch. It was established to provide a conservative perspective in news reporting and has since become a highly influential and politically polarizing force in U.S. media.
U.S. Treasury
The U.S. Treasury, officially the Department of the Treasury, was established by Congress in 1789 to manage the government’s revenue. It is responsible for producing currency, collecting taxes, and advising on economic policy. The department’s headquarters, the Treasury Building in Washington, D.C., is one of the oldest federal buildings in the city and was constructed between 1836 and 1869.
Brent crude
Brent crude is a major classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a key global pricing benchmark. It originates from the Brent oil field in the North Sea, which began production in the 1970s. The term “Brent” now refers to a blend of oils from multiple North Sea fields and is central to the trading of financial instruments like futures contracts.
West Texas Intermediate crude
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is a major global benchmark for oil pricing, known for its high quality and low density. It originates from oil fields primarily in Texas and surrounding U.S. states, and its pricing point is physically based at the pipeline hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.
