Financial expert: Libya faces greater exchange rate deficit and salary delays in this situation.

January 12, 2026
libyawire
Economy
0

Tripoli – A financial expert reviewed potential scenarios for the repercussions of recent events in Venezuela on global oil markets, warning of serious consequences for oil-exporting countries, particularly Libya, if the price per barrel falls below $50.

The expert explained that the sudden change in Venezuela coincided with talk of a U.S. role and the potential opening of the oil sector to American companies. They pointed out that an increase in Venezuelan production under political and economic pressure could push prices towards lower levels, which would directly affect producing countries.

They added that the most likely scenario currently is a short-term rise in oil prices due to market shock and confusion, before prices gradually stabilize as Venezuelan oil exports normalize. However, they confirmed that a real shift towards a decline is linked to the speed of production recovery there and the rapid entry of American companies, which requires time and massive investments in infrastructure.

Regarding the local situation, the expert noted that Libya’s current production is 1.3 million barrels per day, and any drop in oil below $50 would lead to a larger budget deficit, deficit financing, withdrawals from reserves, in addition to accumulating debt, delayed salary payments, and a devaluation of the dinar.

The expert also warned that the price of the dollar would see a growing gap between the official and parallel market rates, with the potential for restrictions on transfers and credits and the imposition of additional fees. They confirmed that any weakness in the exchange rate would immediately be reflected in commodity prices, given Libya’s 94% reliance on imports.

In conclusion, the expert stated that continued pressure on oil prices would place the Libyan economy before unprecedented challenges, necessitating urgent plans to avoid potential repercussions on financial and living stability.

Tripoli

Tripoli is the capital and largest city of Libya, with a history dating back to the 7th century BC when it was founded by the Phoenicians. It later became a significant part of the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and an Italian colony, which is reflected in its diverse architecture, such as the ancient Medina and the Red Castle (Assai al-Hamra).

Venezuela

Venezuela is a South American country with a history of indigenous inhabitation before Spanish colonization in the 16th century. It gained independence in the early 19th century and is known for its significant oil reserves and diverse natural landscapes, including Angel Falls, the world’s tallest waterfall.

Libya

Libya is a North African country with a rich history rooted in ancient civilizations like the Phoenicians and Romans, followed by centuries of Arab and Ottoman influence. In the modern era, it was an Italian colony before gaining independence in 1951, later becoming known for Muammar Gaddafi’s lengthy rule from 1969 until the 2011 revolution. Its cultural sites include the well-preserved Roman ruins of Leptis Magna, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

United States

The United States is a federal republic founded in 1776 after declaring independence from Great Britain, with its modern government established by the Constitution in 1789. Its history encompasses westward expansion, a civil war over slavery, and its emergence as a global superpower in the 20th century. The nation is defined by its diverse immigrant population and a culture blending numerous regional and ethnic influences.

dinar

The Dinar is a historic town in western Turkey, known in antiquity as Celaenae. It was an important Phrygian city and later a Hellenistic settlement, famously associated with the legend of the satyr Marsyas and the river god Marsyas. Today, it is a modern district center located near the source of the Büyük Menderes River.